Portland Area Economic Dashboard

Hi, Sam:

This is GREAT!

Having actual goals to compare with progress allows for accountability all around. As a dedicated nonprofit sector worker and volunteer, I look forward to seeing how our sector can contribute to this discussion and success(es).

Dan

Dear Sam:

Welcome aboard! I am wondering if you will be looking at using incentive based programs to help businesses go above and beyond what is required of them environmentally (specifically for sustainable stormwater management and pollution prevention)?

Thanks,
Sarah

Dear Sam:

Though I currently live in Los Angeles, I will soon be joining the growing number of people that proudly call Portland home. One of the reasons that I've chosen to make this move is, quite frankly, because of the vitality and innovation that you bring to Portland and its politics. You embody and represent the pioneer spirit and and optimism and unshakeable belief in the boundless opportunities awaiting each of us that compelled Americans to push westward, and to create beautiful and vibrant cities, such as Portland. I want to live in and be a part of all of that.

Returning to topic, kudos on the list of indicators - and thanks for its creation. It's nice to see positive expressions of our hopes and dreams articulated - complete with a roadmap for their realization.

My most sincere respect and admiration goes out to you and your entire staff. You're changing the face of politics through your efforts....

Very best regards!

bob

Sam:

Great work and appropriate though "careful" targets. A number of core economic indicators exist that fit well with your community generated list. I would suggest a cross/check , given that many are world class measures.

Good luck with this much neeed discussion forward.

Anthony

Interesting to see this effort. There's no way to quantify quality of life via pure economic measures, and for companies moving to Cornell Oaks (Beaverton) from downtown, they may see lower rent but the indirect costs of all their employees' travel and time may haunt them in subtle ways. See http://www.northwestwatch.org/scorecard/ for a fine effort to "measure what matters". Another commenter pointed out that Portland's success needs to be measured independently of the region's -- its challenges and opportunities are far different than Beaverton or Forest Grove. I agree, and believe Portland can compete on what makes it special vs. suburbia. Quantifying those elusive indirect costs of suburban business may help to position Portland's offering as more desirable.

Interesting to see this effort. There's no way to quantify quality of life via pure economic measures, and for companies moving to Cornell Oaks (Beaverton) from downtown, they may see lower rent but the indirect costs of all their employees' travel and time may haunt them in subtle ways. See http://www.northwestwatch.org/scorecard/ for a brilliant effort to "measure what matters".

Another commenter pointed out that Portland's success needs to be measured independently of the region's -- its challenges and opportunities are far different than Beaverton or Forest Grove. I agree, and believe Portland can compete on what makes it special vs. suburbia. Quantifying those elusive indirect costs of suburban vs. urban business may help to position Portland's offering as more desirable. At a personal level, business is lifestyle, and the urban picture is very different. The rising cost of gas is on our side. Don't let the moment slip away!

Good idea, but as others note, it is a REGIONAL economy and Portland can only do so much. W/respect to the survey, it leaves a lot to be desired. I think city does ok job helping business thru PDC, county sucks at this and most everything else it does. some of the measures are missing the point. Portland's future isn't in manufacturing (nor is that of the US for that matter). That will fall to the third world and the South (or other places willing to cut labor cost to get jobs). We need to excell in the "creative" arena which should include making the machine that makes the tools of mass production used overseas. But, "creative" can be in ways that aren't measured by patents, so that isn't the best metric. Maybe patents and trademarks/copyrights/etc. would be better. If Portland's future is tied to its creative community, as it should be, it will be tougher to measure success. Business formation is probably a good measure, but for that you need a metric for "businesses" and no one wants to pay business taxes, so .... Sam's proposal to eliminate the business tax for small businesses might help, but businesses still need some king of incentive to register/license. A flat out exemption from taxes/fees/harrassment by the Fire Department/B of Buildings, County Health, etc. for 5 years after registering might be such an incentive for those that currently fear licensing (coupled with a constructive business education/outreach program by the above named organizations to show new businesses what they need to do to be in compliance with applicable codes, etc. so they have nothing to fear. Enough for now.

Sam
First, I am not very enamored with statistical measures. They tend to turn me off. That said, there are a few that I believe are very important:

Education level, number of people pursuing advanced degrees, and the number of dropouts are all vital facts. The percent of our city national product spent on education for k12 and for advanced degrees would be telling if we had good data to compare with.

When I think back to the time I organized my business,1981, I could have lived anywhere on the west coast and still provide the same services to my customers. K12 education was the single most important thing my wife and I discussed. Had Portland had the same educational system back then (1981) that it has today, we probably would have relocated.

Your statistical approach is very general, yet I suspect the future for Portland and our region is to find a technology or knowledge niche we can exploit and build around that. Bio Tech Medical is the current strategy. I am not convinced we really have a niche, but are just longing to be a player in that arena.

If we do not have a solid niche, we need to be able to be nimble which means we need a very well educated work force, one which can change quickly.

I remember being in Singapore in 1983 and was struck by the ability of some businesses apparent ability to shift focus and product lines in a very short time. I was not there long enough to assess if they were successful, but it takes a very dedicated and skilled work force to be able to do that.

Will the statistics you are suggesting be useful in judging whether we will be successful? I am of the opinion they will only be used by the folks seeking more government handouts, not the vital few who will make a huge difference on our economy or our city.

Until we get our K12 school situation straightened out, I doubt many will want to have their family here unless they want to put their kids in private schools which has its own baggage and problems.

My vote is no because I think the statistics are too esoteric.

Don Baack

Sam:

With all due respect, this one-size-fits-all statistical approach to economic development is likely to fail because it is unable to match the unique qualities of our economy and the rapidly changing nature of our economy.

In many ways Portland is a statistical anomaly. We have the highest unemployment, but we keep attracting people. Our business costs are high, but companies are posting banner results this year. The strict land use policies constrict available land for economic growth, but companies interested in moving here are undeterred. The information-based portion of the economy is huge, but Portland has a relatively high percentage of basic manufacturing at its core. And the percentage of "creative" workers is exploding. As a result standard economic measures do a poor job of capturing the economic dynamics that drive this city. And to the extent that economic development policies are designed to deliver results against these ill-fitting metrics - we will promote an economic future that is not what we want.

"Minority and women business ownership matches percent of minority and women in local population"? Is there anywhere in the world that even comes near to meeting such a standard? This seems like social engineering - thinly disguised as economic measurement.

Moreover, we live in a world where external factors, both state and global affect our city's performance. Salem's failure to solve the education disinvestment and rising oil prices affect us. Tracking performance to metrics over which we have no control is an excercise in futility.

This seems like another case of: "For every complicated problem there is a very simple and very wrong answer". I believe a better approach is to invest in effective economic development initiatives and focus less on casual metrics. Let's admit that Portland is a special place that deserves custom solutions that will not likely match these standard metrics.

Jim T

Whoever put this survey together has been spending way too long listening to the homilies of the priests in the Church of Economic Church.

Please see more comments below:

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LEAD GOAL: Business climate
Local business confidence survey  meets or exceeds national business confidence survey rating.   

What does this mean? Doesn't mean a thing to me. Why compare ourselves to other regions? Is there supposed to be a competition? Do we get a brand new pickup or trip to the Caribbean if we win?

The LEAD GOAL should be: All existing area residents are enjoying the highest level of prosperity possible for themselves. This includes: quality housing and possessions, not quantity; amount of hours of leisure time each week; access to undisturbed nature; reduced/eliminated noise and light pollution; improved health levels; and other genuine progress indicators.

People in all other regions need the same. We're not a football team trying to win the national championship. We should help them do this, too, not try to beat them out.

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GOAL: Business viability
Local business profitability meets or exceeds national average. 

Another completely meaningless and, therefore, worthless benchmark.

Again, forget about what the rest of the country is doing. How well are we enjoying our lives here is essential. What good are quantified levels of profitability if those profits aren't flowing equitably to existing residents but are, instead, flowing, as they are now, primarily to wealthy corporate managers and stockholders, most of whom live out of the region?  

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GOAL: Business competitiveness
Job Creation, measured by rate of local business growth exceeds national average.   and/or Percentage of local jobs added per 1000 population exceeds national average.   

Once more, an utterly useless benchmark. Lift your brains out of the football team mentality. What do you want to create more jobs for? So that we can reduce unemployment to 0 percent? Naw, that ain't good for big business or the elite minority who now lord over the job market.

More jobs simply means more people being lured here to buy more houses built on our essential forests and farmlands, to drive more cars shipped here from overseas or across the continent, and to buy more junk freighted in from Asian slave factories. At the same time everyone's being brainclogged to believe that growth is inevitable, the big business cronies are busy desperately trying to engineer consistently more growth. Is that really your best wishes for this region?

If more jobs equaled a better economy, then the boom of the 90s would not have yielded a greatly widened gap between the rich and the poor, severely depressed real median wages, markedly increased poverty, homelessness, hunger, and incarcerations. The majority of the jobs produced would have been family wage jobs, not below-poverty jobs, as they were. We would be enjoying more peace and quiet, and more access to nature, and greatly increased leisure time, not significantly less as we are now. We would have more abundant and healthy native habitats and species, not less.

The problem is that you are erroneously equating economic growth with economic development. In a region whose human carrying capacity has already been way overmaxed, you cannot have both at the same time. More is not better.

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GOAL:  Economic equality
Minority and women business ownership matches percent of minority and women in local population.   

Okay, throw a bone this way. Looks good on paper, keeps you PC. A long, long way to go, however. A real long way to go.

GOAL: Economic sustainability
Percentage growth rate in the number of local sustainable business exceeds national growth rate, and/or Maintain lead in LEEDS certified projects.

You are again trying to play the useless comparison game. Creating consistently more businesses and therefore economic activity in a limited bioregion is the exact opposite of sustainable. You can only be sustainable by keeping your population and consumption within the bioregion's limited carrying capacity. LEEDs or any other ranking system won't accomplish that.

How about shifting the existing businesses towards greater sustainability? This would mean the shrinking or shutting down of some industries. Such as the new construction on open land industry (shut down completely by cutting off its public trough swilling), the freight shipping industry (shrink to about 1 percent of current size), and the auto sales industry.

Of course, none of these options are popular with the big honchos who love nothing more than ripping the majority of us off. But if you want to be sustainable, that's what you gotta do. Sustainability doesn't accept compromises. Stay within the carrying capacity or die off--those are our options.

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GOAL: Business innovation climate
Maintain 10% lead in Bachelor’s Degrees and higher held by 25+ year olds  and/or Increase from 33rd t10th Portland--Vancouver, OR--WA PMSA’s ranking for the total number of degrees conferred (Bachelor's and Higher).  and/or  Increase from 15th t10th Portland--Vancouver, OR--WA PMSA’s ranking for the number of utility patents issued tcompanies or individuals per 1,000 workers.   

Another comparison game. Useless, useless. Bachelor's degrees are useful if the graduates enjoyed their academic careers and learned enough about art, literature, history, culture, the environment and other areas of the humanities to provide a perspective on the fragility of human existence. Then, they've achieved something worth cheering about. Hopefully other regions will be able to provide the same for their students, and we should be glad to help them equal or surpass our achievements in this respect. But if more Bachelor's degrees merely means more corporate fodder: who needs them, other than the insecure, fabulously already over-wealthy who will suck the juicy profits from their fresh recruits?

GOAL: Other

Increase to greater majority the percentage of existing businesses that are owned and operated by the majority or all of its workers, who also live within walking distance from their job locations.

INDIVIDUAL AND FAMILY PROSPERITY GOALS

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GOAL: Family income
Local median family income of $63,300 matches median family income of $70,000 for western U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Area’s. (US Census Bureau, updated 2005 ACS)

Numbers don't mean anything if cost keep skyrocketing. What about reducing housing costs for starters, as these have way out paced real wages.

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GOAL:  Reduced Unemployment
Unemployment for all residents matches for western U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Area’s , parity.

How about 0 percent unemployment? Why not dare shoot for that? Oh, that's right, if it drop much below 5 percent, then it's not good for big business. Gotta always keep a healthy percentage of our populace miserable.

GOAL:  Health Care Coverage
100% health care coverage   (Multnomah County Health Dept)

Yeah, finally something we can agree on.

GOAL: Educational Achievement
8th grade test scores, and/or high school completion (Oregon Dept of Education)

How about: achieved 100 percent enjoyment in learning for K-12 students?

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GOAL:  Neighborhood Livability
Percentage of local residents who rate their neighborhood livability as “good” or “Very Good”.” 

Only "good" or "very good?" Why not "fantastic!", "heavenly" or "exquisite?" Did they teach you in your MBA program to shoot for mediocrity?

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GOAL: Other

Peace, love, happiness, and beauty. Without these, what's the point?